Black voters are currently feeling disconnected from the Democratic Party, a significant shift from previous decades. Many are unhappy with President Biden and perceive a lack of action on their political priorities. According to a recent poll by The New York Times and Siena College, 22 percent of Black voters in crucial battleground states would support former President Donald J. Trump in the upcoming election, while only 71 percent would back Biden. This shift is noteworthy given that Trump won just 8 percent of the Black vote nationally in 2020 and 6 percent in 2016. The last time a Republican candidate won more than 12 percent of the Black vote was nearly 50 years ago. If these numbers were to hold across the country in November 2024, it would mark a historic change, as no Democratic presidential candidate since the civil rights era has earned less than 80 percent of the Black vote.
These poll results serve as an early warning sign for the erosion of Biden’s coalition, and Democratic strategists stress that he must increase his support from this crucial voting bloc if he hopes to win re-election. The decline in support is not limited to Black voters but extends to other core constituencies as well, including Latino and younger voters. Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who worked on Biden’s campaign in 2020, expressed concern that the president’s political operation has not adequately prioritized Black Americans and younger voters. The poll also reveals that Biden’s support among Black men is particularly low, with 27 percent supporting Trump compared to 17 percent of Black women.
Although the poll results are concerning for Democrats, there is still potential for improvement. A quarter of Black voters who plan to support Trump acknowledge that there is a chance they may end up backing Biden. Nevertheless, there is worry among Democratic strategists that a significant number of Black voters may choose not to vote at all due to feelings of disillusionment. Issues like high prices and housing instability have contributed to this pessimism, making it difficult for individuals to have faith in the political system when their basic needs are not being met.
However, progressive organizer Cliff Albright believes there is still time for Democrats to regain the support of Black voters, stating that their concerns about economic and global uncertainty are shared by many Americans. He emphasizes the importance of building a strong campaign to address these concerns and ultimately secure their support.
Black voters have traditionally played a crucial role in Democratic presidential victories. Their support in South Carolina during the 2020 primary played a significant role in Biden becoming the nominee, and Black voters were instrumental in his general election victory as well. Biden’s campaign officials acknowledge the work that lies ahead in rebuilding support among Black voters and have launched multimillion-dollar engagement campaigns targeting them. They have initiated organizing programs in Black neighborhoods, hosted events aimed at Black voters, and purchased advertising on Black radio programs highlighting the positive impact of Biden’s policies on Black America.
In interviews, Black voters expressed disappointment with the lack of progress on key priorities such as student loan debt relief, affordable housing, and police accountability. Some believe that Biden is more focused on foreign policy than domestic issues like inflation, which led 80 percent of Black voters in the poll to rate the economy as “only fair” or “poor.” While some individuals expressed openness to supporting Trump, their disaffection with Biden and the Democratic Party was the driving force behind this sentiment.
However, it is essential to note that these results do not reflect a complete loss of support from Black voters. There is still an opportunity for improvement, and with effective communication and action, the Democratic Party can work towards regaining the trust and support of this pivotal voting bloc.