When Rishi Sunak arrives at the Conservative Party’s annual conference on Sunday, it will mark his first appearance as the Prime Minister of Britain. However, attendees at the event in Manchester are questioning whether this could also be his last conference, as a general election looms within the next 16 months. Despite his efforts to restore stability to the Conservative Party after a period of turmoil, Sunak has failed to significantly narrow the gap in the polls against the opposition Labour Party.
The conference takes place against a backdrop of challenges, including a cost-of-living squeeze, a struggling health service, and an ongoing influx of asylum seekers via small boats, all of which are detrimental to Sunak’s popularity. While labor unrest has calmed to some extent, rail workers have intentionally timed strikes to coincide with the conference.
In response to these mounting challenges, Sunak has recently adopted a more combative approach, weakening environmental commitments in an attempt to establish himself as a conviction politician. However, analysts question whether this shift in strategy is a thought-out plan or a reactionary response to low personal ratings and party deficits in the polls.
It remains uncertain whether this will be the last Conservative Party conference before the general election, as Sunak has the authority to determine the election date (which must take place before January 2025). The most likely options are a summer election next year, before the 2024 conference, or a fall election soon after.
This year’s conference is a critical moment for Sunak, as he recognizes that his current strategy is leading towards defeat. With the presence of his predecessors Boris Johnson and Liz Truss still capturing attention, the primary objective is to keep them out of the spotlight and project a united party ready for the fight. Sunak’s previous strategy focused on five objectives, but progress has been limited in halving inflation, growing the economy, reducing debt, cutting healthcare waiting lists, and stopping the arrival of asylum seekers in small boats.
Charles Lewington, a former media chief for the Conservative Party, believes that Sunak’s change in approach was inevitable but has been expedited due to his failure to improve poll numbers. Despite Labour’s uphill battle to secure a majority after their heavy defeat in the 2019 general election, Lewington believes there is still a chance for the Tories to surprise with a successful result by positioning Sunak as the change candidate.
However, the transition has not been seamless, with Sunak’s recent pledge to delay the ban on gas and diesel cars and adjust targets for replacing gas boilers revealing divisions within the Conservative Party. The new stance reflects the Conservative Party’s victory in a parliamentary election in northwestern London, where they opposed the expansion of an air-quality initiative supported by the Labour mayor.
Sunak’s strongest argument now is his ability to meet climate goals without imposing further costs on struggling Britons, in contrast to the Labour Party. He also plans to introduce measures to benefit motorists and explore cost savings by questioning the future of the high-speed train link (HS2). The uncertainty surrounding HS2, particularly the leg connecting Birmingham and Manchester, challenges Johnson’s promise to “level up” and spread prosperity to areas in the north and the Midlands that have lagged behind in economic growth.
Additional ideas being considered include abolishing inheritance tax, a policy favored by the right-wing of the Conservative Party. However, this could generate negative optics for Sunak as it would primarily benefit the wealthy, including the Prime Minister himself.
Professor Ford believes that these new announcements primarily aim to rally Conservative Party activists, lawmakers, and the influential right-wing media. The change in strategy also suits Sunak, as he is not required to fulfill most new commitments due to the limited time available before the general election. However, the risk lies in how voters will perceive the “real Rishi” when his true political stance is revealed.
Initially, moderate Conservatives in the south of England warmed to Sunak due to his ability to bring stability after Liz Truss’s short-lived tenure. However, Professor Ford suggests that Sunak’s social conservatism may not resonate with voters who prioritize other issues such as the cost of living, the economy, and the healthcare system. Therefore, it remains unclear what electoral appeal the “real Rishi” holds.