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Turbulent Waters: How the Black Sea Became a Hot Spot in the War

Russian warships are currently patrolling the Black Sea and launching missiles at Ukrainian towns. They have also implemented a de facto blockade, threatening any vessels that attempt to breach it. Ukrainian sea drones, on the other hand, are covertly carrying explosives towards Russian ports and vessels, posing a growing threat. NATO and allied surveillance planes and drones are flying over international waters, collecting intelligence to counter Moscow’s invasion. The Black Sea, bordered by Ukraine, Russia, and three NATO countries, is becoming a dangerous area of military tension. Following Russia’s decision to end a deal ensuring the safe passage of Ukrainian grain, the region has become a potential hotspot for confrontation. The sea is crucial for global energy markets, world food supplies, and the projection of political power. The control of the Black Sea represents a significant war aim for Russia, as demonstrated by the annexation of Crimea in 2014. NATO countries and partner nations in the region are taking measures to avoid a direct confrontation with Russia, but the risk of major incidents escalating is increasing. Ukraine is using maritime drones to challenge Russia’s naval dominance, with recent strikes on Russian ships showing the effectiveness of their new fleet. The battle for control of the Black Sea has economic implications and presents challenges for NATO as it seeks to maintain free navigation without direct conflict with Russian forces. Turkey, a NATO member that controls critical maritime passages, has prohibited Russian and Ukrainian warships from using the straits. However, tensions remain as Turkey opposes further NATO presence in the Black Sea, fearing an increased risk of conflict with Russia.